Twitter Updates

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Crunching the Playoff Numbers

The unofficial computer points standings are out on the indispensable Joe Eitel's website..and the Orrville Red Riders are now officially in the playoffs for a 22nd time.

Here is the snapshot of Region 13 after 9 weeks, showing the Riders in 2nd place. So now that we can officially say "we're in," let's talk about who we might play in week 11. It's not mathematically certain, but it might as well be so I'll just say it....Orrville WILL host a week 11 home game regardless of the outcome against Wooster. Even if we received no 2nd level points from teams we've already beaten, I think we drop no further that 4th place, still earning us a week 11 home game.

There's 4 other games besides the Orrville-Wooster game that will impact the final standings in the region and thus, the first round matchups. Here's my best as to how things will go this weekend.

1. Girard will play 0-9 Youngstown Liberty. This is a win for Girard, and with that a Region 13 championship.

2. Orrville plays 4-5 Wooster. Tough game, but I think Orrville's defense stops the Generals and the offense does just enough.

3. Norwayne plays 9-0 Hillsdale. Being at home helps Norwayne. The loss to Smithville was an eye opener & I think Norwayne rights the ship.

4. Black River plays 0-9 Keystone. Easy win for the Pirates, but no help with points from a winless team.

5. Brookfield plays 1-8 Beaver Local. Another easy win, but little help.

6. Canton Central Catholic takes on rival St. Thomas Aquinas. I think win or lose, CCC is in somewhere between 5th and 7th.

7. Manchester plays 7-3 CVCA. Big game for the Panthers. Win & they're in, lose and they could be out.

8. LaBrae plays Steubenville Central Catholic. I think they win, but will need help to make it in the top 8. Weak schedule.

9. Cleveland Central Catholic plays 6-3 Holy Name. Similar to Manchester, Cleveland CC needs a win to be in.

So...where does that put everyone after Orrville and Wooster play on Saturday? Here's what Drew Pastuer's site says. This would be the top 8 after week 10 if his projections are followed (points are my calculations). Week 10 result in parenthesis.

1. Girard (W) - 22.05
2. Orrville (W) - 21.30
3. Black River (W) - 17.50
4. Norwayne (L) - 17.45
5. Manchester (W) - 16.60
6. Brookfield (W) - 16.25
7. Labrae (W) - 13.55
8. Canton CC (L) - 13.45
9. Cleveland CC (L) - 12.75
So per Drew Pastuer, here's the first round matchups in week 11.

(8) Canton Central Catholic at (1) Girard
(5) Manchester at (4) Norwayne
(6) Brookfield at (3) Black River
(7) Labrae at (2) Orrville

Here's some of the other possible scenarios....

If Norwayne beats Hillsdale, they would jump to 2nd in the region ahead of Orrville and play Labrae in the first round while Orrville would fall to 3rd and play Brookfield.

If Canton CC wins, they would jump up to 7th and travel to Orrville (or Norwayne). Labrae would fall to 8th and have a rematch with Girard in round 1.

If Cleveland CC wins, they would jump to 7th and travel to Orrville (or Norwayne) for round 1.

If both Canton CC and Cleveland CC win, they would leapfrog Labrae and finish 7th and 8th respectively.

If Manchester loses to CVCA, it's likely that they fall out of the top 8 and miss the playoffs.  Eighth place would be the best they could hope for with a loss this week.

Here's my guess on standings after week 10.

1. Girard
2. Norwayne
3. Orrville
4. Black River
5. Manchester
6. Brookfield
7. Canton CC
8. Labrae
9. Cleveland CC

So in this scenario, Brookfield would travel to Orrville for a first-round matchup.  The gap between them and Canton CC for 6th and 7th place will be very small....and it's very possible that Canton CC ends up 6th.  So right now, I'm calling it either Brookfield or Canton CC coming to Orrville.

The good thing is the Riders are in the playoffs.....and are practically a lock for a week 11 home game.  The focus should be on Wooster and taking a 7th straight win over the Generals....and let week 11 and beyond take care of itself.


Ben said...

Here's my predictions/calculations. It involves every team in the top 8 winning. People from the PAC seem to favor Manchester over CVCA, and I don't think Aquinas is any match for CCC.

1. Norwayne 21.45
2. Girard 21.4
3. Orrville 21.3 (Thanks Titans)
4. Manchester 17.05
5. Brookfield 16.85
6. Black River 16.65
7. CCC 16.39
8. LaBrae 14

I've been running week 10 predictions for 2 weeks, and every time Girard/Orrville have been within .1 of 2nd and 3rd; same with CCC and Brookfield in 6th/7th. 2nd level points will be the deciding factor, especially for Brookfield. My predictions have Memorial beating Struthers to Brookfield into 5th, if not their back to 16.35 in 7th place.

Red Rider Sports Blog (Tim Snyder) said...

With a win, Girard finishes with 4.1 first level points, and if predictions assume Manchester winning (5 2nd level) and a guaranteed 5 from Niles/Hubbard game, and assuming a Labrae win over Steuby CC, that's a total of 13.5 2nd level points, or 17.95. Add that to the 4.1 and that's where I got 22.05. For Norwayne to finish 1, CVCA has to beat Manchester (very possible) and Labrae loses to Steuby CC.
At a minimum, Girard finishes with 21.2 points with a win...if Labrae or Manchester win, they win the region, unless some real upsets happen in the WCAL.
May come down to Madison beating Senior, that would probably put us in 2nd.
Lots of variables.....
Thanks for keeping track of the #'s.