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Friday, August 21, 2009

What CalPreps.com says about the 2009 season

If you've never heard of CalPreps.com, don't sweat it, that just means you're not a stats dork like me. The site itself is pretty plain, unless you putting real teams in ficticious matchups. It allows you to select a team, and put them against any other team in the state and see how the projections work out on each teams' home field as well as a neutral site.

Well...here's how the site projects Orrville's 2009 season to go. All projections are based on the game being played on a neutral field.

Week 1 ----> Win vs. Northwest - 27-21
Week 2 ---> Win @ Triway - 31-14
Week 3 ---> Win vs. Copley - 34-7
Week 4 ---> Loss vs. Lexington - 22-28
Week 5 ---> Win @ Senior - 42-12
Week 6 ---> Win vs. Ashland - 28-8
Week 7 ---> Win @ West Holmes - 28-10
Week 8 ---> Win @ Madison - 35-7
Week 9 ---> Win @ Clear Fork - 31-8
Week 10 ---> Win vs. Wooster - 28-8

So, 9 wins and the only loss to Lexington. All but 1 of our wins are projected to be by at least 2 TD's. Not to shabby right?

As much as I'd take this outcome, you just can't do anything but look at this, and throw it in the trash. Games aren't played on paper. We SHOULD be a solid team this year, and a definite team to watch in Region 14, but it has to be proven on the field. Many things can affect a team's play. We've seen this play out already in the very early stages of the '09 season.

In these projections, only one team in Region 14 was projected to beat us and that was Genoa Area. So according to CalPreps, we have the ability, on paper, to be a regional finalist (at least).

To give CalPreps some credibility, their 2008 accuracy for Ohio games was 80%. According to them, picking the team with the better record (or the home team when teams have identical records) would have netted a 70% accuracy rating.

What they are saying is their projections better than what picking the better team would net. Their mark of 80% accuracy means they were ahead of the curve, for 2008 anyways, and that their projections have at least marginal credibility.

In looking at last years projections, they hit on 9 of 10 (missing only the West Holmes game), and hit the projection for the week 1 loss to Northwest square on the nose (and came scary close in weeks 2, 3, 4 & 9).

Again, doesn't take a rocket scientist, I think in my weekly predictions last year, I was 8 for 10....the same 80% rate that CalPreps achieved for the entire state.

Here's the link to CalPreps projection page. Have fun.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting website, that CalPreps.

I'm from Orrville but living in PA for nearly 20 years. It's interesting to see how Orrville stacks up against some of the better teams from this area (Manheim Central in Lancaster and Wilson in West Lawn).

Unfortunately it looks as if Orrville comes up short in both of these virtual contests however (based on 2008 stats). Still cool to check out, though.

Thanks for the link.

Dean J.

Anonymous said...

I did some more messing with the stats and things do indeed look pretty good for the Riders this year (according to CalPreps.com).

If the Riders could somehow squeeze in 727 games this season (play each team in the state once) their record would theoretically be a fantastic 666-61 (91.6 winning percentage).

Yeah, that's pretty good.

Dean J.

T. Snyder said...

Dean,
I'm glad someone is having fun with it.

There's one team in ohio, from the Cincinnati area...maybe St. Xavier who calpreps predicts to beat every other ohio team. EVERY SINGLE ONE!!! That's impressive.