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Sunday, October 4, 2009

Region 14 Analysis: This is Why They Let Computers Do This

Six weeks down, four to go. Time to start talking playoffs. The Riders currently sit 5th in the region with two huge points games left. Let's look at where we sit now and where we might sit a scant 4 weeks from now.

We sit 5th right now with 9.63 points, and if the playoffs started today (which they don't, but you knew that), we'd head to Western Ohio to play the Titans of Ottawa-Glandorf.

If we win the remaining 4 games, we should sit no worse than 2nd in the region. We have a lot of 2nd level points left on the table, maybe more than any other team in the region. Let's run through a few scenarios....

We can finish anywhere in the range between 11.40 points (Lose out) to 26.45 points (win out/best case). That's quite a range, I'll do my best to narrow it down.

I think we have the talent and the motivation to win out. No rose colored glasses here. I truly think this team will win out. But the season does boil down to 2 games...this Friday against Ashland and in week 9 against Clear Fork. Win those 2, and you could lose to Madison AND Wooster and still make the playoffs.

As it stands right now, the Clear Fork and Ashland games are worth 51.5 2nd level points, that's 5.15 points added onto our average (currently 9.63)...then add another 1 point onto our first level average. So just beating these 2 teams would give us an additional 6.15 points onto our average.

I tried my best to not overanalyze, or do any reaching with these projections. I have Copley, West Holmes and Madison winning a combined 1 game the rest of the season....so any games those teams win will only increase our final numbers.

My realistic projections have us finishing with 24.50 points....and that will be good enough for a home playoff game in week 11, and possibly even a computer poll championship....quite a feat for a 2 loss team.

If we lose to Ashland, but win the remaining 3, we'd finish with 19.75 points.

If we beat Ashland, but lose to Clear Fork, we'd finish with 20.5 points.

If we should beat Clear Fork and Ashland, but lose (amazingly) to Madison and Wooster, we'd still finish with 20.15 points.

In all 3 of those scenarios, we'd still have enough points to qualify for the playoffs.

The only scenario that would put us in danger of missing the playoffs would be that of losing to both Clear Fork and Ashland. Of course, losing all 4 would be bad too.

Ok...enough of me and stats....time for you to make your own scenario. Click here to view my projection spreadsheet. Our schedule is in red across the top, and below each of those teams is their remaining schedule.

Check the box if you think they will win that game and see how that impacts our points. Be careful that a game you predict an opponent to win doesn't conflict with another checked box. Example....If Lexington is playing West Holmes...both teams can't win the game.

Have fun....

4 comments:

riders harbin man said...

I like your predictions. I give Copley a little more credit putting us with a final avg. of 24.8. If you really get bored, try to figure the 7 + 8 seed. IF Black River wins out, they wind up with about 17.7 points, putting them in 7th, and Edison in 8th with around 17.5 points. That would keep Eastwood out (assuming they don't beat Patrick Henry). Fun to consider possibilities, but the bottom line is just win baby.

Tim Snyder said...

Harbins,
My ADD kicks in and wont allow to look at all the scenarios too closely. I love numbers, but even I have my limits.

In a few more weeks, the scenarios will shrink and get a little more clear.

We could see Triway, Clear Fork, or both down the line, how fun would that be? Especially Triway.

Anonymous said...

No way this current Rider team loses to Triway...that WOULD be fun!

Dean J.

riders harbin man said...

Alright, back again with all new numbers. Barring something ridiculous:
1: Galion
2: Triway (assuming Copley loses to Revere)
3: Orrville (assuming Lex loses to Ashland)
4: Genoa
5: Ottowa Glandorf
6: Milan Edison
7: Clear Fork
8: Eastwood

Only thing that really changes these pairings is if Copley wins, we see Clear Fork. If Lex wins, both Orrville and Clear Fork move up, and we still see Milan Edison. Gotta love the 4-5 matchup!